The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided, on Wednesday (19), to raise the Selic rate to 14.25% per year, the highest value since 2016.

The measure reflects external challenges, such as uncertainty in the economic policy of the United States, which affects global expectations, and the domestic scenario, with signs of slowdown in economics and inflation above the goal. Predictions for inflation of 2025 and 2026 increased to 5.7% and 4.5%, respectively.

USA kept, Brazil climbed

In addition, the Committee highlighted risks to inflationas the discouragement of expectations and the resilience of service inflation. The decision to increase Selic aims to control inflation and promote economic stability, balancing growth and full employment.

Meanwhile, in the US, the Federal Reserve (Fed), Central Bank, said for ata do FOMC, equivalent to Copom here in Brazil that:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat high.

The committee seeks to reach maximum employment and inflation at a rate of 2% in the long run. The uncertainty about the economic perspective has increased. The committee is aware of the risks on both sides of its double term, explains the US BC minutes. Thus, the Fed opted to maintain interest in the United States (USA) in the interval between 4,25% e 4,5%.

What are the impacts of Selic’s discharge on the crypto market?

Both decisions were expected by economists. Here in Brazil, Lucas Constantino, chief strategist at GCB Investimentos, bets on a higher Selic by the end of the year.

At the second meeting of the year, Copom maintained firm posture in fighting inflation and unanimously raised the Selic Meta rate by 1.0 pp – in line with GCB Investimentos projections – taking the basic interest rate to 14.25% AA

In February, Brazil’s official price index (IPCA) up 1.31%, which led to an advance from 4.56% to 5.06% in annualized reading, increasing its distance to the upper range of tolerance of the BC goal of 4.50%, says Constantino.

Although the recent currency appreciation and deceleration of the economy bring some relief to prices, the risk balance remains high.

For the chief strategist, the positive side of all is that “the devaluation of the dollar has reduced part of the inflationary pressures, while the latest readings of activity indicators point to signs of weakness in the productive sectors. Thus suggesting that the tightening of financial conditions has already affected the economy, even without a more expressive impact on prices”, points out

The downside, according to the GCB Investimentos expert is the highlight of the minutes of the “Brazilian fiscal fragility and the increase of international uncertainties through the economic policies of Donald Trump.” In fact, these are points that should continue to influence projections on inflation and conduct the basic interest rate by the institution.

Given the uncertain and challenging panorama, we maintain the projection of a terminal rate of 15.50% AA to Selic, explains Constantine.

Attentive market

However, the recent improvement in information and data flow – reflected in inflation expectations – can make room for interest stabilization at a slightly lower level, considering a projected economic slowdown context, he adds.

He also believes that the “Fed must continue to follow the evolution of the scenario, politics, indicators and expectations of agents to each meeting

Jorge Alves, partner and CEO of Brazil Bitcoin, believes that the “recent increase in interest rates to 14.25% per year – the highest level since the Dilma government reflects the market’s concern with the lack of public accounts and the discharge of inflation expectations”.

At times like this, it gets even clearer how economic cycles directly impact those seeking security and profitability, says Alves.

Optimism in the crypto sector

Sebastián Serrano, CEO and co -founder of Ripio, is optimistic. For the executive, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies offer alternatives to chronic global problems such as inflation.

No wonder we see the adoption of crypto increasing year by year: the last 2024 figures showed that more than 568 million people, 6.8% of the global population, had cryptocurrencies.

The increase compared to 2023 was 33%, with our region leading global adoption statistics, with a growth of over 117%, according to estimates of the Triple A payment processor, which coincide with the volumes reported by Chainharysis, explains Serrano.

After ads, Bitcoin climbed

Ana de Mattos, Ripio’s technical analyst and partner trader, made an analysis shortly after the announcements. After the disclosure of macroeconomic data, the price of Bitcoin had a 4.64%appreciation. It is no longer negotiated for $ 83,578 and reaching the maximum of $ 87,453.

If there is continuity of discharge, the price of Bitcoin can seek resistance from US $ 88,620. If this resistance is overcome, the next medium -term target will be the liquidity region of the $ 94,840, explains Ana.

If the price of Bitcoin does not exceed the resistances mentioned above, the asset may seek short and medium term supports in price ranges of US $ 83,020 and US $ 79,700, complements mattos.

Ethereum above US $ 2 thousand

The price of Ethereum broke up the consolidation in which it operated since March 10. When breaking, Ethereum reached the maximum of the 19th, at $ 2,069.

If the buying force is continued, the price of the asset may seek liquidity regions of US $ 2,185 and US $ 2,285 as resistance points. Ethereum supports are in the value areas of $ 1,830 and $ 1,750.