Arthur Hayes, a former Bitmex CEO, predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) can shoot to $ 250,000 by the end of the year.

However, this forecast depends on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) change its monetary policy towards quantitative loosening (QE).

Understand Hayes’s forecast

He argues that an interruption in quantitative squeeze (QT) and a return to liquidity injections would trigger a substantial high bitcoin.

If my analysis of Fed, Treasury and Banking System interaction is correct, then Bitcoin reached a low location of $ 76,500 last month, and now we started the rise to $ 250,000 by the end of the year, said one post on your blog.

This forecast is based on Hayes’s belief that central banks, especially the Fed, will be forced to intervene to support financial markets, boosting Bitcoin up.

In addition, the Bitmex co -founder directly binds Bitcoin’s potential price movement to the Fed approach to monetary policy. He argues that the Central Bank’s response to increasing fiscal pressures will lead to the end of the QT and to a de facto return to QE.

Powell proved last week that tax dominance is alive and well, and that it will do whatever is necessary to ensure that the treasure can finance itself at reasonable rates. Therefore, I am confident that the QT, at least in relation to the Treasury titles, will stop short to medium term, Hayes added.

Based on this, Arthur Hayes sees this as a crucial time for Bitcoin, emphasizing that Bitcoin, the pioneer crypto, “will rise quickly as soon as this is formally announced.”

Hayes also reinforced his confidence in the forecast, stating that his goal for Bitcoin is achievable, as the title market, banks and congress (which he calls BBC) will press the Fed to act.

British financial expert Raoul Pal supports the thesis of an optimistic perspective for the price of cryptocurrency. The former Goldman Executive Sachs pointed to macroeconomic indicators that suggest that a Bitcoin rise is imminent.

Raoul Pal shared a chart correlating the global monetary supply M2 and the price of currency. Based on the story, Bitcoin tends to rise about 10 weeks after the increase in M2, with PAL analysis suggesting that Bitcoin may soon enter a high phase.

The waiting game is almost over… the 10 -week leadership is my favorite… but, Pal commented.

QCP Capital stagflation alert

Adding another layer to the macroeconomic scenario, QCP Capital analysts warn that if the stagflation settles, the Fed may choose to increase rates instead of cutting them. Such action would complicate the optimistic perspective for Bitcoin.

Markets continue to prose 2.5 cuts in 2025. The Fed is in a difficult position with consumer confidence and weak data, which can foresee a weaker GDP in the second quarter. At the same time, tariff -induced inflationary pressures may begin to accumulate after April 2, the analyst he wrote.

Optimism comes despite Bitcoin records its worst performance in the first quarter (Q1) in seven years. This, nevertheless, analysts point to a moment of high, suggesting that a price recovery is on the horizon.

Sellers have dried, and buyers look comfortable with current price levels – preparing the scenario for a structural supply scarcity. April-May can become a consolidation zone-a calm before the next impulse, stated Market Analyst Axel Adler Jr.

Veteran investors are also increasing their participation in Bitcoin, signaling an accumulation phase that often precedes strong high prices. Market data also indicate that the drop in sales pressure from Bitcoin holders is paving the way for potential advancement towards $ 90,000.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered observed the growing role of cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation. This further solidifies the place of pioneering crypto as a macroeconomic asset in uncertain financial times.

However, while macroeconomic concerns continue to challenge Bitcoin’s attractiveness, gold is progressively presenting itself as a value reserve alternative. The benchrypto also reported that gold is overcoming Bitcoin as a refuge amid Trump’s tariff chaos in 2025.