According to a mathematical analysis of financial expert Fred Krueger, Bitcoin (BTC) has a 77% chance of recovering its historic maxim this year.

Its point of view adds to the predictions of other experts, who see an US dollar index (DXY) and a global M2 liquidity on the rise as catalysts for the next rise in bitcoin.

Will Bitcoin reach a historic record in 2025?

In a detailed X publication, Krueger applied the geometric brownian movement model (GBM) to estimate the likelihood that Bitcoin rise from its current price of about $ 85,000 to $ 108,000 to 2025.

To contextualize, GBM is a mathematical model commonly used to represent asset price behavior in finance. The model assumes that the active price logarithm follows a brown movement with a tendency. In simpler terms, this means that the price of the asset has two components:

• A deterministic tendency (DRIFT) that represents the expected return of the asset over time. It is often expressed as a constant percentage rate.
• A random component (stochastic part) that considers the volatility or unpredictability of the price of the asset. It is modeled as a wiener process (ie random fluctuations).

GBM is used in various financial applications, including option pricing, future asset price forecast and portfolio risk assessment.

For his analysis, Krueger initially assumed that the BTC follows a GBM with zero drift and 80% volatility. This resulted in a 65% chance of Bitcoin reaching its historic maxim of $ 108,000. However, it adjusted the model to incorporate the historical currency growth trend, applying a 40%power drift.

“This increases the mathematical chances to 77%. Chatgpt performed a simulation that confirms this result,” Krueger stated.

The review of the analyst challenges the numbers in the forecast markets. In Polymarket, As chances The BTC reaches an ATH before 2026 are much smaller, in just 52%.

“This is wrong and can be arbitrated by dynamic hedge,” Krueger said.

In fact, the chances are even lower in Kalshi. She estimates a 23% chance of Bitcoin reaching a new peak of $ 150,000 in the same period.

Global liquidity in the high and fall of DXY strengthens optimistic projections for Bitcoin

Meanwhile, sharing Krueger’s positive perspective, another analyst predicts a next rise, citing a strong correlation with global M2 liquidity and a weakened American dollar.

“April would be the month when Bitcoin marks the full fund and starts to rise, and it started this week!” he he wrote no X.

He emphasized that global M2 liquidity reaching a new ATH is a positive indicator for Bitcoin, which usually follows a delay of 75 to 105 days. In addition, the fall of the dXy to a 3 -year low, along with the reverse correlation between DXY and BTC, further feeds optimism for the growth potential of Bitcoin.

Now that the M2 is rising strongly, the next step is the rotation of gold profits to Bitcoin. This is already happening and explains why Bitcoin jumped from the input zone of the 74,000-76,000 super cycle to 86,000. Everything is happening as expected, he highlighted.

The analyst expects a short -term retraction to $ 80,000. However, it remains optimistic in the long run. According to him, the BTC can reach from $ 550,000 to $ 650,000 by 2030, driven by the devaluation of the currency and the fixed offer of Bitcoin.

Currently, Bitcoin is negotiated about 22.1% below its historical maxim. Hummittto data showed that it fell 0.6% on the last day. At the time of publication, the BTC trading price was $ 84,338.