A financial analyst has publicly criticized the use of global M2 monetary supply data to predict Bitcoin price movements (BTC), calling such mathematically unsustainable and misleading analyzes.

Criticism arises amid an increase in global monetary supply M2 for a record level. Several analysts are predicting similar trends for the BTC.

The analyst, known as TXMCTRADES, shared his opinions on X (former Twitter). He specifically pointed out to a chart of Macro Raoul Pal investor comparing Bitcoin’s price to the global M2.

The TXMCTRADES profile has argued that drawing global M2 on daily or weekly bases is methodologically flawed, as the underlying data update frequencies vary significantly between countries. According to him, this compromises the integrity of analysis by amplifying short -term oscillations, rather than accurately reflecting long -term structural trends.

Guys, you can’t create a daily or weekly temporal series of “global M2” when the United States updates M2 only weekly and everyone else! said the post.

He explained that many countries have not yet updated their numbers beyond February, creating gaps in the data set. TXMCTRADES stated that this inconsistency results in a metric that largely reflects exchange rate fluctuations (FX) instead of real monetary supply dynamics.

You are looking at an inverse exchange rate weighted by M2 95% of the time. Be better in math! He added.

He also highlighted broader concerns about the misuse of global M2. The analyst emphasized that China, which is 46% of the global M2, is the only large economy with a wide monetary supply above its postcovid peak in terms of dollars.

They are currently trying to get out of a several -year debt deflation and are doing a very bad job of it. Their M2 only climbs, commented TXMCTRADES.

Was US reference failure?

Meanwhile, the United States M2 remains below the peak recorded in 2022. According to the analyst, its current growth rate is the slowest since Bitcoin’s creation, except for the period between 2022 and 2024. This scenario indicates that the US is not experiencing accelerated monetary supply expansion – a factor that can directly influence the trajectory of inflation and other macroeconomic dynamics.

This disparity, argues TXMCTRADES, further weakens the reliability of the global M2 as a predictor of Bitcoin’s price movements. The analyst also contested the use of “random compensation” to align the global M2 with Bitcoin price movements, a method employed by several analysts.

For example, Raoul Pal suggested a 12 -week delay between the global M2 and the price of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Colin Talks Crypto proposes A delay of 15.4 weeks. Mr. Wall Street estimates the delay between 10.7 and 15 weeks. Some even extended the correlation of M2 to predict altcoins prices, such as Solana (sun).

Sol has followed the global monetary supply M2 (+100 days) in its last two climbs. If this continues, Sol is about to climb massively in the next 2 weeks, posted the Curb Analyst posted.

However, the analyst stated that compensations are often arbitrary. For him, these adjustments do not reflect the real dynamics of monetary supply or asset prices.

Money is money, no waiting time, he said.

The analyst argued that these models suffer from overlap to recent historical data, which compromises their validity as forecast tools. In the end, TXMCTRADES has appealed by greater financial analysis, asking analysts to “stop proliferating misinterpretations” and adopt more consistent mathematical methodologies to understand price dynamics in the cryptocurrency market.