In early 2025, several Altcoins fired on new historical records. Others rose to peaks of several months, taking advantage of the high wave driven by Donald Trump that swept the crypto market.

However, the increasing commercial wars of the US President and the broader macroeconomic instability have led to a significant drop in many altcoins, raising questions about the next season of these coins.

Altcoins season moves further

The Altcoins season refers to a market cycle in which assets crypts significantly outweigh the BTC in terms of price gains. Many altcoins witness significant increases during this period, often due to increased investor speculation, BTC’s capital rotation to other crypto assets and optimistic feeling in the market.

This cycle begins when at least 75% of the 50 main altcoins exceed the BTC over a period of three months. However, this is far from reality. The altcoin index, which accompanies this trend, has fallen to its lowest level since October 2024, signaling continuous weakness in the sector.

To date, only 24% of the main altcoins have surpassed Bitcoin in the last 90 days, highlighting their dominance in the current market cycle. This persistent lower performance suggests that a season of Altcoins may still be distant.

Further reinforcing this pessimistic perspective, total2, the metric that accompanies the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, excluding the BTC, remained on a descendant parallel channel since the beginning of the year.

This pattern signals a sustained fall trend. It forms when the price of an asset moves between two descendant parallel trend lines, with lower and lower minimums over time. To date, the total2 is $ 1.14 trillion, falling 17% since January 1.

This fall confirms the lack of strong high boost in the Altcoins market, suggesting a null probability of a season of these coins starting soon.

Bitcoin dominance rises as a market retraction deepens

While the market has witnessed a significant retraction recently amid Trump’s trade wars, Bitcoin’s dominance continued to increase. An assessment of Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) in a daily chart confirms the same.

This metric, which measures the percentage of total cryptocurrency market capitalization that Bitcoin has, has remained above a rising trend line since last December. To date, it is 61.29%.

If the dominance of the BTC remains high, it can further delay the prospects of a season of Altcoins.