According to Timothy Peterson, author of Metcalfe’s Law as Model for Bitcoin Value, the crypto industry may be on the verge of another low market, with the negative forecast for Bitcoin.

This analysis arises while the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its cautious posture on interest rates despite persistent economic uncertainties.

Analyst explains how a low market can happen

In his recent forecast, shared at X (former Twitter), Peterson warned that the market, and Bitcoin, are currently overvalued. This, he said, makes him vulnerable to a fall. Although such a fall needs a trigger, he suggests that the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates stable may be sufficient to trigger it.

It’s time to talk about the next low market. There is no reason to think that it could not happen now. The assessment justifies this. What you need is a trigger. I think this trigger can be as simple as the Fed does not cut interest rates this year, he wrote Peterson.

Peterson’s analysis draws parallels between past market falls and current conditions. Using Nasdaq as a reference point, he estimates that a low market could last from 7 to 14 months.

Considering that NASDAQ is currently 28% overvalued, it anticipates a drop of about 17%, bringing the rate to 15 thousand.

Applying these projections to Bitcoin, Peterson forecast a drop of approximately 33%, pushing the price of BTC to about $ 57,000

Multiply by 1.9. It remains of 17% no nasdaq = remains of 33% no Btc -> US $ 57 thousand, Peterson added.

However, he notes that opportunistic investors could intervene early. Such intervention could prevent the price of Bitcoin from falling so much, potentially supporting around $ 71,000.

This is aligned with a recent analysis by Arthur Hayes. As reported by Beincrypto, the Bitmex founder said Bitcoin could fall to $ 70,000 before a possible recovery.

Analysts too highlighted Bitcoin air gap below $ 93,198, with little or no significant support even around the range of $ 70,000.

Fed’s role in the market fall

Meanwhile, about a month ago, Fed President Jerome Powell said the Central Bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates. He reiterated these observations during his speech last week. Speaking of a Policies Forum in New York, Powell emphasized the need for patience.

We do not need to be in a hurry and we are well positioned to wait for more clarity, Powell stated.

Powell’s observations occur amid economic uncertainties fueled by President Donald Trump’s trade policy changes, immigration, fiscal policy and regulation. With inflation hanging around 2.5%, the Fed is focused on addressing these challenges with caution.

Despite market expectations for rate cuts this year, Powell made it clear that the Fed will wait before adjusting monetary policy.

Adding concerns about a possible Fed -inspired drop, Bitcoin recently fell after Fed’s warning about a possible recession. The Fed designed a 2.8% drop in GDP to the first trimester (Q1) of 2025, triggering economic instability fears. This negatively influenced investors’ feeling.

Despite these warnings, Peterson remains unconvinced that a complete low market is imminent. He argues that current market conditions are not as euphoric as those of previous bubbles. The analyst also explains that the feeling of low between investors may indicate a long -term purchase opportunity rather than a sign of sale.

Beincrypto data show that Bitcoin was being negotiated for $ 86,026 at the time of this writing, a 0.1% drop since the opening of Sunday session.